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Stat of the Week |
20th August 2007 |
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For the first SOTW of the new season we've decided to investigate how previous NUFC managers have performed in their opening Premier League fixtures. That is to say: who is The Man when it comes to getting results in that tricky first fixture of the season?
Table 1.0: Results of opening fixtures by manager
This simple table shows the basic information, but if we went off this alone then Glenn Roeder could be said to have the best record with a 100% opening day success rate. I'll let my bias show and ask the question: surely some mistake?! Let's disprove that claim with 'science'*. Take a peek at the chart below...
Chart 1.1: Weighted scoring of managers based on opening fixtures
This chart takes into account whether the opening fixture was played home or away, the final league position of the opposition played—which gives some indication of the true value of the result—as well as the outcome of the match itself. Big Sam's score takes into account his first opponent, Bolton's, final placing last season of 7th.
Some details: an away match is weighted as being approximately 20% more difficult than the equivalent home match (see why); positional modifier is very rough, based on the average team that season and number places finished above or below that team.
Summary
At first glance, it looked like the Cockney who never made excuses had taken this week's prize but—thanks to some skillful number-massaging—this week's winner is: Sam Allardyce! A sign of things to come, hopefully.
| You'll see this disclaimer most weeks, so get used to it... |
*No actual science involved |
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